Antique Lure Collectibles Lure Collector Demographics and the Baby Boom Generation

First published and copyrighted 1997   Last updated: Monday, March 29, 2004

The relationship between collecting antique fishing lures and the market dynamics of the baby boomer demographics

Published in the NFLCC Gazette (March 1997), FATC (Jan. 1997), and a UK Fishing publication (April 1997)

News flash: Marlborough, Mass., February 24, 1989. The summary sheet in Oliver's post auction price sheet quoted a conversation overheard between several bidders who were standing in line to pick up their newly acquired tackle treasures stating: "Where will all this end?" "How high will prices go?" To that question there was the reply from a decoy bidder, "Duck decoys started this way and didn't end until one sold at Oliver's for $319,000!" (See the re-sale information below on this item...)

News flash II: USA TODAY, May 18, 1997. In an front page article, the explosion in bass fishing is discussed and the huge numbers of participants exposed. The headlines read: "44 million people hooked on fishing spend billions"A shameful display of men and women having fun fishing to the exclusion of their jobs. Fully one third of whom are ages 25-34. Who do you think will collect fishing tackle in the future?

News flash III: USA TODAY, March 25, 1998.  Again in a front page article regarding fishing, the estimates have once again soared: Amount spent on angling is $37.8 billion!  Yes, billion.  Amount per angler was $1,072.   Number of anglers was flat at 35.2 million.  Government estimates of individuals making $100,000 or more a year, one in five goes fishing.  Fully half of those 16 and older who fish have an annual household income of more than $40,000 and slightly more than half have gone to college.  Just more people to get the collecting bug in the next ten years.

News flash IV: Auction, June 7, 1998. Highest price, $9,500, ever paid of a wood lure was paid by a Texas collector for a c. 1903 Heddon high forehead underwater minnow.  Private sales continue to set record prices.

News flash V: Chicago Times, April 10, 1999, Herb Desch of Chicago, president of the Midwest Decoy Collectors Association: "For a decade, the record decoy was an Elmer Crowell sleeping pintail that went for $319,000 in 1986," Desch said. "That was surpassed last year by a $335,000 shorebird from an unknown carver. I've subsequently heard that a Mason factory wood duck went for $350,000 and that someone may have offered $400,000 for an Elmer Crowell sleeping Giant Canada goose."    (Editor's note: regarding the decoy sale note in the first paragraph.  This is the same decoy ten years later in 1999,  In 2000,  the same one again sold for over $600,000 at a Sotheby's sale in NY.)

News flash VI: NFLCC National at Little Rock, AK.  Highest price ever paid for a wood lure was set in the $50,000 range for a Heddon 150 high forehead in copper.  In close second place was a Heddon 300 in the picture box for $40,000, and a Heddon Dowagiac Underwater minnow in the box for $40,000.

Prices and Boomer Demographics:

Lately, (c. 1997, again in 2001) there's a lot of negative talk about guys getting out of the hobby of collecting lures because prices are too high, or they can't find anything in the field. Has all the good stuff really dried up or will high prices bring more lures out of the closet? Granted, those duck decoy collectors are a different breed of cat, but let's look at lures relative to who may be collecting in the future. Maybe we should take a look at this situation from a positive perspective and why you should stay in the program regardless of prices based on new baby boomer collectors, higher prices, and retirement forces.

Almost nightly, there are conversations on the national phone network between collectors about how high prices are now and much agonizing over when will they top out. The other night, a broker quoted me a really high price for a rare Heddon in the wood box. Was anyone willing to pay the price? According to the broker/seller the answer was not only "yes", but multiple "yes's". A couple of weeks before, a long term collector I spoke with on the phone said he had decided to get out of the hobby because it cost too much and no one wanted to just trade anymore. He sold most of his collection within minutes of our conversation by phone. Excuse me, but try doing that with even the best piece of real estate. The point: excellent lures are liquid. Real liquid.

A few years ago, in 1996, the chatter around the Daytona 96 National Tackle Show was about the "stupid" prices being asked and paid for Heddon's. I saw one collector pay $9,000 for a rare one of a kind Heddon 747. Twelve or twenty four months later, they don't sound so stupid. At the Little Rock National Show in June of 1997, there were individual super rare lures sold for $4,000 and up to $10,000. Outrageous? Stupid prices? You be the judge a year later.  (2000: these prices seem tame by comparison with what has taken place at the National in Little Rock)

During the past year (1998), we've seen the price of some excellent condition and rare color Heddon 150's soar from $300 to over $900 and then go back down recently as the individuals who drove the market became saturated. One individual advertising that he'll pay such and such for a given lure will drive the asking price up by other individuals.  Remove that individual from the game, and prices settle back into a more normal range.  The prices of collectibles are cyclical and anyone who has been in the game for more than ten years can tell you how much the prices fluctuate with the economy and demand.

(1997) Wood boxes are routinely selling for over $300. Rare cardboard boxes have reportedly changed hands recently for thousands! Apparently these prices are not just aberrations. But, asking and getting are two different worlds. At Daytona, Florida, 1997, I saw a speculator try to run up the prices, but there were few buyers at the inflated prices. There is however, a real demand for the rare, in excellent condition, (I saw $10,000 paid for one Heddon Black Sucker). At Dayton, Ohio in 1997, an individual paid a record $22,000 for a Haskill metal minnow. Again, today's stupid prices may be tomorrow's bargains, but they also might be the top of the cycle.  Who knows?

Some think this is only the beginning of a long term upward trend. If you doubt it, refer to the duck in the first paragraph 'News Flash' and then let's talk about who's stupid! Then again, there is the risk. The risk that the bottom will fall out tomorrow. The decoy prices fell. Gold coins fell. Baseball cards fell. Think about it again. You didn't sell that lure for $1,000 last week and next week the market crashes and we are back to the $5 lure! Don't laugh, it could happen. It has happened before. In 1988-89 the prices went through the ceiling and crashed the next year as the rolling recession of the 1990-93 period started. With the Asian and Russian economies crashing in 1998 we may see the same results sooner than later.  Collecting is a mind game. Without the perception, in your mind, that something has value then there is none. What is the intrinsic value of a wood fishing lure? Well, we're back to the $5 lure.

If you survey the auction catalogs from the past ten years, it was usually the miscellaneous baits which consistently brought the big bucks. Today, condition, color, and rarity is the driving force among the collectibles from the major tackle companies.  On eBay auctions, typically the novices are only buying new in the box material because they have been burned so many times by people selling junk and fakes.  There has been a change in the collecting habit from building a large representative collection (one of everything made) to a smaller, more narrowly defined collection of quality.  With this change, some collectors are opting out of the game due to price. Others are backing off due to lack of material to buy at flea markets or even at High Roller auctions.   Personally, I have backed off too because I just can't obtain the material at a price I can afford.

Did you know that old men don't make money in real estate because they can remember when you could buy it for $50 an acre?   At the rate prices have risen in the past four years, you don't have to be too old to remember when..   Maybe the same applies to high grade lures. I know a long term collector who routinely walks away from great buys because he can't stand to pay the top dollar now being demanded.  Fortunately this Texan has a beautiful collection and can just sit back and enjoy the appreciation and quality of his past efforts.  The rest of us will have to step up to the plate or get out of the game.

Friends tell me lure collecting is (was?) a blue collar hobby and there just isn't that much money available to drive the market at present levels. To quote: "One good recession and the whole game is over." But what age groups are replacing the older fishermen-collectors who took a fancy to collecting things they fished? Baby boomers, that's who.

The oldest boomers are now 40 to 50 years old and looking at early retirement in the next five to ten years. There are millions of them and judging from the stock market, which at this point is at an all time high, they are generally wealthy. What do you think many wealthy retired boomers will do with their time five years from now? Collect, that's what. Assuming they have the money in their pension funds to do so. If the market crashes, all bets are off the table.

In our area of Florida, retired men spend their days hunting either golf balls, fish, or collectibles. I would bet there are more closet tackle collectors in Florida than anywhere. Why? The retired old guys are bored to death and turn to tackle collecting because it's a cheap hobby with plenty of stuff to collect. Ask anyone who has had a garage sale and they will tell you the earliest visitors, frequently wearing frog lights on their heads, are old dudes looking for fishing tackle. In five to ten years there will be millions more of them.

From a different perspective are those individuals looking at investment grade collectibles as a way to diversify their portfolio. Collecting is a way to hide a few bucks from wives or those nasty individuals who may have designs on your disposable cash. Let's just say the guys in the back of the room at most auctions are not there to accumulate something going down in value. Collecting is a great investment when the collectible is appreciating. (Maybe you better think about those baseball cards and gold coins again to get a reality check.) Why get out of an appreciating asset? What else can you get into that's going up and is fun? Collecting lures is a great investment at this point besides being fun.

Lets face it, there are a limited number of collectibles which appeal to guys and tackle is one of the easier ones to understand. Women are getting into the club at a rapid rate because they appreciate the history of the lures, the artwork and color,as well as the fun of being with and competing against a bunch of guys. If even a small number of boomers come into the fold, the prices could soar quickly. The price spikes seen in the late eighties at auctyions were driven by only a few individuals buying at auction. The current wave of higher prices is much broader based and apparently driven by true collectors rather than a few New York lawyers speculating in rare reels or miscellaneous lures. It isn't the time to get out of the hobby, but maybe time to sell what you don't particularly love to new collectors and trade up.

A word on deflation and speculation: "If you  don't think deflation can and more than likely will happen in lure collectibles, take a look at the original Karl White book of values on Bamboo Fly Rods. Today Bamboo Fly Rods sell for HALF the values White reported years ago. Why? Speculators jumped in and created an artificial top."

What's a guy to do? Well, the Japanese tackle dealers are buying plastic lures like it's going out of style and they think it's a kick to fish with a $500 lure on 6 lb. test line. (That was true in 1997, but not at the end of 1998)  All of a sudden later vintage 1960's lures, which older collectors turned up their collective noses at, are disappearing.  Heddon Spooks, which are still normally fished with, are scary at $25 in 1997. Creek Chub is the hottest item on the lists and older collectors are able to buy a new house with the sale of just a part of their collection. Sure it's getting more expensive to stay in the game, but the rewards for owning a few excellent things are always greater than owning a bunch of mediocre junk. My advice to older collectors who feel frustrated: cull that mature collection, but don't dump it all. Alter your attitude

(1998) I predict the growth of the Internet will drive the hobby of lure and reel collecting at a pace never seen before.   Why?  Because Internet use is growing exponentially by the very age group that will retire early with the greatest income.  In the next two to five years, the Internet is going to totally invade our lives.  Trading and selling of lures or reels is too easy on the Net to not grow.  Why would someone sell a lure to a dealer at a discount when the seller can put it up for auction on the Internet and get top dollar?   The days of antique lures being bought for peanuts is going to end because everyone will be able to look up the price of a lure on the Net and offer it to the highest bidder in an open auction.  Prices will rise as competition increases among the collectors of the world.  But, the junk placed on eBay auctions in hopes of high prices will kill the middle market.  It doesn't take long to saturate the lower end buyers.   Older and knowledgeable buyers will dominate the market.

(2000) As I predicted, Ebay has become the major force in lure collecting.  However, the prices are going through the roof for the early and rare lures.  You never get a chance to go one on one with a seller and 'sneak up' on a real deal.  If something really tough shows up on eBay, everyone gets an equal chance and the big dog walks away with the bone at the high price.  

Collecting, as opposed to gathering, can be an intellectual pursuit as well as a way to be with other people of a similar interest. In my experience, lure collectors, in particular are the some of more fun loving bunch of people I've encountered. I don't know if this will translate to the Internet or not.  How much fun is it to collect in front of your video screen?   On the other hand, where else can you legally have this much fun and maybe make some money on your indulgences in the long run? Bottom line: collect what you really like and wait on those boomers to show up about the time you want to buy a house in Montana, but don't quit the hobby just because it's hard to find a five dollar Heddon.